Dominik Pederzani

Hinge and Omada have just filed for IPO in the US. In Europe, Doctolib is expected to go public soon. I wrote down a few thoughts. 1️⃣ 𝟗𝟎%+ 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐏𝐎𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐝.... 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟐 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐬𝐨 𝐟𝐚𝐫 Based on data of HealthTech Alpha from Galen Growth | Redefining Digital Health Intelligence, only 20+ out of 200+ #HealthTech and TechBio IPOs reached a $1B+ valuation, meaning over 90% didn’t achieve unicorn status. But the tide may be turning. In 2024, Waystar and Tempus AI went public. As of now, Waystar has a $6.8B valuation (+90% since #IPO), and Tempus AI has reached $11.3B (+62%, though volatile). More IPOs are on the horizon, including Sword Health (musculoskeletal care), Virta Health (diabetes & weight loss), and Zocdoc (#healthcare marketplace). These listings will test the maturity of the HealthTech sector... and Private Equity should be watching closely. 2️⃣ 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐇𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐞, 𝐎𝐦𝐚𝐝𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐛 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐈𝐏𝐎? 𝐎𝐦𝐚𝐝𝐚: This is the most at risk of the three. ◾It needs at least a $1B valuation on the public market. But is it really a $1B+ business? ◾There's high reliance on a few top customers, who hold significant power. ◾Its digital-only approach to chronic care is challenging. Medications (pills) often win over apps, and new hybrid models like ChenMed or Aledade may prove more effective. ◾Omada has also seen limited traction in the U.S. Medicare market (65+ population, often with multiple chronic conditions). ◾Will Omada benefit from the GLP-1 boom? or, on the contrary, will GLP-1 adoption undermine its business? 𝐇𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡: Most likely to succeed in the short term; longer term remains to be seen. ◾Key observers are optimistic about its IPO. If it continues the momentum from a strong Q1 2025 (where it reached profitability) it should perform well. However on the longer term:: ◾What are the next growth levers? Will it acquire rehab centers? ◾How defensible is its tech in a highly competitive market? ◾How can it avoid a race to the bottom? 𝐃𝐨𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐛: Strong chance of a successful IPO. ◾99% recurring revenue and central to the outpatient care tech stack (+ hospital presence) ◾Growth of its practice software in France and its future launch (this year) in Germany will be critical. ◾Often referred to as the "Epic of Europe" for better or worse: highly ambitious but with limited ecosystem logic. ◾Reaching its last-round valuation of $6B+ may be difficult. A 10x revenue multiple (average of Waystar at 7x and Tempus AI at 14x) would imply a ~$4B valuation based on current revenues. ◾Doctolib would be the first HealthTech IPO in Europe ----- The most successful scale-ups will be attending HLTH Europe mid-June in Amsterdam. It is not too late to book your ticket! Follow HGM Advisory for daily reposts of the most important HealthTech news.

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Last week, I had the chance to speak at SuperVenture 2025 in Berlin on venture secondaries, and the energy around this topic was amazing to see. Every single panel seemed to touch on secondaries in some way. It's clear this market has moved from niche to necessity. Some striking data points that came up: → Venture secondaries now account for over 50% of VC liquidity in the US market → With just 38 median IPOs annually over the past decade, traditional exits aren't meeting demand → The secondary market is still only 0.6% of total venture (vs 1.8% in broader PE), massive growth potential ahead → Europe is still catching up to US liquidity levels → Israel remains a standout in the global tech landscape What struck me most was the shift in mindset. Secondary has become a strategic tool for keeping great companies growing longer and keeping founders motivated through extended value-creation cycles. Thank you SuperVenture for bringing together such a thoughtful community around these critical topics. Thank You Olaf Neubert from TopCap Partners and the distinguish panel Omolade (Rachel) Adebisi from Isomar Capital, Thomas Fitzherbert-Brockholes from StepStone Group and Jérôme Chevalier from Quadrille Capital ISF Israel Secondary Fund

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 We’ve completed our first acquisition: Whisper AI Whisper AI has been one of the most exciting players in our space – building smart tools to identify promising founders early and gaining strong traction in the DACH region. From today, Whisper is part of Evertrace (formerly Signal). The product and data will now live inside Evertrace, strengthening our platform and making DACH our largest market to date. Nik (the founder & CEO of Whisper AI) + team, not only built a great product but also proved that the region is ready for this technology. On top of that, they’re simply great to work with. This acquisition marks an important step in our strategy to build the #1 founder detection engine in the world. And we’re only getting started. More acquisitions are on the way 👀 Thanks to Tech.eu for covering. Link to article in the comments.

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The Project A Defence Tech Continuum 2.0 is here! Defence investing is no longer a niche topic — it’s one of the most discussed areas in venture capital today. But for many investors, especially in Germany and Europe, the same questions keep coming up: How should VCs navigate this space? What’s possible within existing regulations? Where do we draw the line between dual-use and purely military applications? To bring more clarity, we’re releasing the updated Project A Defence Tech Continuum. This second version dives deeper into the regulatory landscape across different categories, helping investors understand what’s feasible—and where the real opportunities lie. Excited to share this and keen to hear your thoughts! Florian Seibel, Sven Kruck, Marc A. Wietfeld, Sven Weizenegger, Frank Thieser, Jack Wang, Michael Vetter, Frank LEIDENBERGER, Susanne Wiegand, Paola Compés Tatay

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