Trends in autonomous vehicle testing: What’s next?

1. Introduction

Autonomous vehicles (AVs), ADAS, and electric mobility are no longer just visions of the future - they are being tested on roads across the globe today. Yet, with every innovation comes a greater challenge: how do we test safely, at scale, and across diverse real-world conditions?

At TSMG, testing is not a final step - it is the foundation of progress. Without robust data, ground validation, and multi-environment execution, autonomy cannot scale responsibly.

2. Market outlook

According to Global Growth Insights, еhe global market for autonomous vehicle simulation solutions was valued at USD 1.7 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 2.26 billion in 2025, USD 3.01 billion in 2026, and expand to USD 29.78 billion by 2034, representing a striking CAGR of over 33%..

👉 Insight: This exponential growth confirms a structural shift in how the industry approaches testing. Simulation will increasingly dominate early development cycles - allowing OEMs and tech companies to test millions of scenarios virtually before vehicles ever touch the road. This reduces costs, accelerates regulatory approval, and strengthens safety cases.

However, virtual testing is not enough on its own. Regulators, insurers, and consumers demand proof under real-world conditions. As a result, the future lies in hybrid testing approaches: scalable simulation combined with structured, sensor-driven field operations.

3. Trends for the next 5 years

Looking ahead, several developments are shaping the next phase of AV testing:

Edge Computing for AVs: Validating both cloud and on-vehicle decision-making.

• 5G Connectivity: Ultra-low latency networks will support real-time updates, over-the-air (OTA) testing, and faster data transfer from fleets in the field. This will tighten the feedback loop between simulation and live validation.
• AI in Data Processing: As fleets generate terabytes of sensor data daily, AI-driven analytics will be essential for detecting anomalies, training perception models, and automating structured reporting.
• Cross-Regional Standards: Global markets - from the US to Europe to Asia - will increasingly demand unified validation methodologies, with Euro NCAP, NHTSA, and UNECE regulations driving alignment.
• Safety Assurance Beyond Vehicles: Testing will expand beyond cars to infrastructure integration - traffic lights, V2X communications, and mixed traffic ecosystems with pedestrians and cyclists.

👉 As Global Growth Insights points out, by 2030 the focus will shift from testing individual vehicles to validating entire ecosystems.

4. Operational backbone for testing

Scaling autonomous and ADAS testing is rarely about technology alone — it’s about the structure behind operations. Projects succeed when they combine:

1. Consistency across regions – results that are comparable and compliant worldwide.
2. Operational reliability – where route planning, logistics, and coordination run seamlessly in the background.
3. Flexibility at scale – testing setups that grow from pilots to multi-year programs without losing efficiency.

This operational backbone is what enables testing to translate into trusted results — providing OEMs, regulators, and the public with the clarity needed to move mobility forward.

5.Building reliable testing frameworks

As programs expand, the industry is recognising that testing frameworks must go beyond vehicles themselves. The future lies in approaches that:

• Link simulation with field validation;
• Deliver transparent reporting and regulator-ready compliance;
• Adapt to different markets and infrastructures without losing precision.

Organisations that embrace these principles will set the benchmark for trust in mobility. At TSMG, this is the foundation of every program we support.

Conclusion

The AV testing market is moving from experimentation to industrialization. With growth projected at over 33% CAGR, the next decade will be defined by companies that can manage complexity while ensuring safety and compliance.

At TSMG, we are proud to support this evolution - not only as practitioners but as partners in defining the standards of tomorrow’s mobility.

*Industry data: Global Growth Insights, Autonomous Vehicle Simulation Solution Market Report