How Small Bay Properties Hedge Against Rising Insurance Costs

***Small Bay Sundays*** Why Small Bay is a Natural Hedge Against Rising Insurance Costs Over the last few years, property insurance has gone from being a line item in the budget to a headline risk across commercial real estate. Costs traditionally rose two to three percent a year, but that trend has shifted. Moody’s has reported that premiums are growing more than 17 percent year over year in some markets. Deloitte shows the average monthly cost of real estate insurance for a commercial building climbed from $1,558 in 2013 to $2,726 in 2023 and could reach $4,890 by 2030, an increase of nearly 80 percent. Travelers points to the drivers we all feel on the ground: climate events, reinsurance costs, and rising replacement expenses. For many owners of large single-tenant warehouses or multifamily assets, insurance is now eating into NOI in ways that make deals difficult to pencil.   Small bay is built differently. Smaller buildings naturally limit the loss magnitude. A 30,000 square foot property simply does not carry the same catastrophic exposure as a one million square foot box. Multiple tenants spread risk, so one claim does not derail the rent roll. Portfolios that span across metros are less exposed to a single storm or flood. And when it comes to hardening assets, it is more practical and cost effective to upgrade roofing, drainage, sprinklers, or fire barriers at this scale.   When we began looking at small bay opportunities in Florida, we knew insurance would be the biggest hurdle. What we found is that the structural guardrails of small bay, including smaller footprints, diversified tenants, and easier upgrades, held up even in one of the most insurance-pressured states in the country   Think about it this way. If you own one million square feet in a single big box and premiums rise 15 percent, that building could easily face a re-rating that pushes the increase to 25 percent. Now imagine the same million square feet broken into ten small bay properties across three markets. One or two assets might take the hit, but the blended increase could land closer to 12 to 16 percent. Over time that spread compounds into a real advantage.   Owning small bay is the first step. Managing it strategically is just as important. The best operators are bundling programs across properties, highlighting tenant diversification and clean loss histories when working with carriers, and investing in upgrades that mitigate exposure. Insurance stress testing is becoming part of underwriting, not just an afterthought once the deal is closed.   Insurance is quickly becoming one of the most important drivers of real estate performance. For many asset classes it is eroding yield. For small bay it is proving to be a defensive moat. In a market where every basis point matters, small bay industrial is not just functional space, it is durable cash flow. #CommercialRealEstate #IndustrialRealEstate #SmallBayIndustrial #RealEstateInvesting #CREInsights Brian Whitmer

Also able to share the burden of insurance increases through NNN leases. You may not expect a tenant on a NNN lease to absorb an 80% increase in Insurance costs, but you have the ability to pass much of that increase through to the tenant. And because your 30,000 sq ft space might have 15 to 20 tenants, they won't be eating the full cost of the increase alone.

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