When I first started following autonomous trucking, I believed pure-play startups would lead the way. They moved faster, attracted top AI talent, and captured investor attention. But over time, it became clear that speed alone isn’t enough and the companies making real progress today look very different. Spending time with startups, OEMs, fleets, and being on the Tier-1 supplier side, it became clear that the real progress happens where these worlds intersect. The strongest projects today are not defined by who builds them, but by how well teams integrate across traditional industry boundaries. Startups bring incredible AI innovation but often underestimate the complexity of commercial vehicle engineering and industrialization. OEMs and suppliers have deep manufacturing expertise but still adapt to faster, software-driven development cycles. Fleet operators know operations inside out but often lack the technical depth to assess competing solutions. The winning approach: ▪ Integrated teams - engineers from startups, OEMs, suppliers, and fleets collaborating from day one. ▪ Shared risk - each partner having skin in the game beyond formal contracts. ▪ Operational feedback - real-world data constantly shaping development priorities. The most successful programs today aren’t just partnerships - they’re true collaborations, where roles blur and everyone contributes to solving the same technical and business challenges. That’s why I now see the future of autonomy not as a battle between startups and incumbents, but as a convergence of their strengths. In autonomy and beyond, progress doesn’t come from competition - it comes from collaboration. Do you see similar patterns of convergence in other emerging tech fields? Disclaimer: All views are my own.
Wojciech Siwik While an OEM tie up of some sort may happen, Kodiaks strategy was to provide an FG to the installed base, brand agnostic. Much larger TAM/SAM/SOM there.
As a researcher dedicated to the commercial vehicle/fleet sector of automotive, I do believe this is a general theme for successful deployments of advanced technologies such as fleet electrification, connected fleets, etc. - embracing the cohesive ecosystem model - if not as robust and structured partnerships as shown with AVs. It truly takes a village, and the CV/Fleet sector is as roundly collaborative as there is.
Many a time Tier 1s bring in the advanced technology and the OEM s integrate it in production. That way the strength of both sides are brought in for a better product. Not surprised to see the startups having tie ups with OEM s.
In this overview, it seems to me that Aurora currently has a leading edge. They started unmanned trips already and are planning expansion.
Nvidia shows up more than any other name here! No wonder they’re the most valuable company in the world right now
The chart reveals a fairly common denominator! Invidia!!!
Nice write-up, thanks for sharing!
Amazing that our teams at Flipside AI annotate and review ground truth data for two of the world’s top 5 AD trucking companies!
As always, great analysis, Wojciech Siwik 👏 Curious to hear your thoughts on Kodiak’s approach. they’re technologically quite advanced but don’t yet have an official partnership with a truck OEM. How do you see this affecting their scalability and path to industrialization — or do you think their approach might be scalable mainly for off-road applications?