COP30: The Paris Agreement Shifts from Targets to Execution
South Pole
Leading carbon project expert and climate consultancy. Trusted partner and advisor on decarbonisation since 2006.
COP30 wrapped up this past weekend in Belem, Brazil, bringing to a close the ‘Implementation COP’. Frédéric Gagnon-Lebrun was in Belem for South Pole and shares his perspective on what the outcomes mean for climate finance, carbon markets and the private sector.
Following a marathon of negotiations at COP30 in Belém this weekend, countries reached a hard-won consensus on the 'Belém Package’. While the agreement established a framework to scale up climate finance, the outcome has generated mixed reactions, with the final text not moving as far as many had hoped on phasing out fossil fuels and finance for forests.
Let’s not forget the summit took place against a backdrop of geopolitical unpredictability and delays of some countries in announcing their updated national climate contributions (NDCs). The final adopted text calls for mobilising at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for climate action, alongside tripling adaptation finance and operationalising the loss and damage fund agreed at COP28.
Yet the Paris Agreement demonstrated its resilience and maintained momentum while facing headwinds. Climate action is like riding a bike—we need to keep going to not lose balance.
With the last parts of the Article 6 rulebook of the Paris Agreement adopted in Baku last year, Belém prioritised the practical acceleration of the Agreement’s implementation. For the private sector, this signals a transition from high-level target setting to operational execution. The mandate is clear: over 80% of people and 97% of businesses worldwide want governments to step up on climate action.
The role of carbon markets has undoubtedly been elevated, widely recognised as a critical lever for achieving climate finance targets. We anticipate carbon markets to continue to mature, serving as a vital tool for business resilience and a mechanism to channel urgent capital into scalable climate solutions.
2025 marks the 10-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and the year Article 6 became operational. Our focus now shifts to stress-testing Article 6.2 and the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism in real-world scenarios, balancing rigorous integrity with necessary scalability. Developing an ecosystem of actors capable of delivering high-quality carbon projects is essential to addressing the looming supply crunch—particularly as Asian markets increasingly leverage Article 6 for compliance with domestic carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes.
I left Belém with a sense of pragmatism rather than optimism. This year's summit reinforced the durability of the Paris Agreement and continued momentum for carbon markets. But we need to be clear-eyed about the challenge in front of us: the ambition gap remains significant and the role of private sector finance is more crucial than ever.
Frédéric is Global Director for Climate Policy, Finance and Carbon Markets at South Pole and has more than 18 years of experience managing teams and consultancy projects in climate and energy policy. He has conducted research and consultancy projects in Canada, Latin America, and Africa, and has extensive experience in climate and energy policies in developing-country contexts, especially in relation to carbon-pricing instruments and climate finance, as well as United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations.
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The COP30 talks concluded with the "global mutirão" package, which agreed to a goal of tripling adaptation finance by 2035 and establishing a Just Transition Mechanism. Despite strong opposition, the Brazilian presidency launched a voluntary initiative for fossil fuel and deforestation roadmaps among nearly 90 nations. Although the final text lacked a formal commitment to phase out fossil fuels, the deal was seen as a win for multilateral cooperation, if not high ambition.
The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) released a draft for its updated Net-Zero Standard (V2), which would require large companies to publish mandatory climate transition plans. The draft also offers companies greater flexibility for addressing Scope 3 emissions and introduces new recognition for those that invest in climate finance and carbon removal outside their value chain. The new standard aims to be more inclusive and actionable, with mandatory usage expected by 2028.
The European Union approved a binding target to cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. A key concession allows member states to use international carbon credits for up to 5% of the reduction, a compromise that was criticised by environmentalists but provides a significant boost to the carbon market. This approval gives the EU its negotiating mandate for future global climate talks.
4. Earth.org - Countries’ Climate Pledges Put World on Track for 12% Reduction in Emissions, UN Says
A UN report found that the world's current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) collectively project a 12% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. The UNFCCC noted this marks the first time the curve of planet-heating emissions is bending downwards under the Paris Agreement. However, the report cautions that these pledges still fall significantly short of what is required to limit warming to the 1.5°C goal.
Leading scientist Johan Rockström warned that removing CO2 from the atmosphere is vital to avoid catastrophic climate tipping points, as the world is projected to overshoot the 1.5°C target. He stated that approximately 10 billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed every year to limit warming to 1.7°C. Achieving this massive goal requires creating a trillion-dollar industry and must be done in conjunction with drastic cuts to current emissions.