MANHATTAN MARKET UPDATE: DECEMBER 2025

A Strong Fall Season, a Softer November, and a Balanced Winter Ahead

Although November was quieter than last year, it followed a very strong September and October. The fall market (measured from the Tuesday after Labor Day through the Friday before Thanksgiving) was Manhattan’s best fall season since 2021 and the second-best in 11 years in terms of contracts signed.

Although a slowdown in late November is seasonal and expected, contract activity fell below 2024 levels in three of the month's four weeks. Even so, November still recorded 772 contracts signed, outperforming both 2022 and 2023 and reinforcing that 2025 continues to compare favorably with recent years.

Election-Year Context: Why 2024 and 2025 Behaved Differently

Part of the year-over-year decline also reflects a key difference in election-season behavior between 2024 and 2025.

Last fall, the market briefly paused as some buyers braced for the presidential election and the possibility of a drawn-out outcome. Once the result was finalized quickly, activity rebounded as pent-up demand returned to the market, resulting in an unusually strong post-election increase in contract activity in the second half of November and December 2024.

This year was different. Despite fear-driven headlines around the mayoral election, the data showed no meaningful slowdown leading up to or immediately following the election. Because buyers did not pause their plans as they did during the 2024 presidential election, there was no post-election “catch-up” spike. Instead, demand was more evenly distributed throughout the season, resulting in a softer November comparison but a healthier, more stable fall overall.

Luxury Continues to Lead

The luxury market was a notable bright spot. There were 110 contracts signed for properties priced over $4M in November, below last year’s strong level of 135, but above 2020, 2022, and 2023. Over the past decade, this November ranks as the third-best November for luxury contract activity, underscoring how consistently the luxury segment has led the Manhattan market throughout 2025.

Supply Trends Support Market Balance

Supply conditions also continue to support balance. Total inventory is almost identical to this time last year, and, as is typical for November, declined 8.2% month over month. As we move into the winter market, supply is expected to trend lower before rebuilding at the start of the spring season. This seasonal contraction plays an important stabilizing role, helping maintain equilibrium even as demand softens seasonally.

Pricing Remains Steady

Pricing dynamics show a steady, disciplined market:

• The median listing discount held at 4.4%, unchanged year-over-year and month-to-month.
• Sales over ask rose to 13.4%, showing ongoing strength for turnkey, well-located homes.
• Median days on market fell to 77 days, down 9.4% YoY and 3.8% MoM.

Turnkey properties continue to command pricing power, while homes with dated finishes, awkward layouts, or less desirable locations must be priced correctly from the outset.

The “multiple markets” dynamic remains in full effect: great homes move quickly; everything else requires a sharper pricing strategy.

Entering the Winter Market: Strategic Considerations

The market now enters the winter market, defined as the period from the Saturday before Thanksgiving through the end of February. Over the next 30 days, some sellers temporarily withdraw their homes from the market for the holidays, while more motivated sellers may reduce their asking prices to try to secure an offer before January.

BUYERS: Watch listings that have been on the market for 90+ days or have had two or more price reductions. These often offer the strongest negotiation opportunities.

SELLERS: Assess your position, price, days on market, and competing inventory to determine the most strategic path forward based on your goals and timeframe.

Bottom Line: A Stable, Balanced Market Heading Into Winter

Overall, Manhattan enters winter in a stable position. The fall season delivered strong activity, luxury continued to lead, and supply trends are maintaining balance. November was softer than last year but remained healthy and in line with the season’s rhythms.

For buyers and sellers who approach this market with clarity and strategy, there is an opportunity on both sides of the trade.

📌 Data Sources: Data in this report were sourced from UrbanDigs, Marketproof Pro, and Mortgage News Daily