Tips for Preparing for Freight Market Volatility

🎶 SEASONS OF FREIGHT 2025 🎶 You may have seen my post last year about the seasonality of freight and what trends newbie brokers should know about. I’ve updated my “seasonality schedule” to reflect patterns we’ve seen and how freight brokers can prepare this year. 🏮 Lunar New Year (January/February) Celebrations across Asia means factories close, creating a ripple effect in supply chains. → Plan for a slowdown in imports from countries like China, Vietnam, and Korea, then watch for a surge in shipments post-holiday. In 2023, ocean freight rates fell by nearly 20% after Lunar New Year. 🍎 Produce Season (Spring/Summer) Strawberries from California, blueberries from Florida, and peaches from Georgia—fresh produce dominates freight volumes. → Did you know reefer spot rates can climb as much as 15% higher during peak produce harvests? Time to lock in capacity early. 🏗️ Construction Season (Spring/Summer) Flatbeds are in demand! From cement mixers to steel beams, building materials hit the road as the weather warms. → Construction spending in the U.S. hit over $1.9 trillion in 2024, much of it requiring flatbed and heavy-haul capacity. 🛣️ DOT Blitz Week (June) With thousands of trucks inspected during this safety initiative, expect a dip in capacity. → Nearly 20% of trucks inspected during the 2024 blitz were placed out of service—a reminder to double down on compliance and prep drivers. 📦 Prime Day (July) Two days. Billions of orders. Brokers should gear up for surges in e-commerce freight. → Last year, U.S. shoppers spent $12.9 billion during Prime Day 👀 🌀 Hurricane Season (June to November) Brokers should prepare for disruptions and reroute shipments as necessary to avoid affected areas, while also prepping strong flatbed/open deck capacity. → Build strong relationships with flatbed carriers for emergency hauls of recovery supplies. 🌽 Harvest Season (Fall) Grains, corn, and soybeans flood the market as farmers get to work. Did you know that 25% of U.S. freight tonnage is agricultural? → Brokers in rural regions should tap into the agricultural freight boom, especially for bulk hauls. 🌟 Peak Season...in theory (October/November) Holiday shipping kicks off! E-commerce and retail freight dominate, with warehouses running at full tilt. → In 2024, peak season rates for dry vans surged by over 30% compared to Q3 averages. Plan ahead to secure capacity. 💼 Bid Season (Fall) Shippers finalize contracts for the coming year, making this a critical time for brokers to align pricing strategies. → Analyzing freight RFP trends can give you a leg up in winning long-term business. 🎁 Holiday Season (December) The final sprint! Holiday freight—think parcels, decorations, and gift bundles—keeps trucks moving nonstop. → 2024 saw a record $13 billion spent on Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined.. Brokers should prioritize expedited and last-mile deliveries. What seasons did I miss? Drop them below!

Companies are in for a double whammy. Tariffs are back, so everyone’s scrambling to buy inventory before costs jump. But at the same time, the economy is volatile and demand might be softening. Stockpile too much, and you’re sitting on cash you can’t move. Buy too little, and you’re paying a premium later. We’re already seeing the impact—inventory levels are expanding at their fastest rate since 2022, but costs are surging even faster. Warehousing prices spiked 18 points in late February, and firms are holding onto stockpiles rather than moving product. This shift from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory is putting serious pressure on storage capacity and operating costs. ➡️Buy what matters, not everything. Lock in critical, high-turn items, but don’t let panic buying clog up your balance sheet. ➡️Keep pricing flexible. If demand slows, offer strategic discounts or bundles to move inventory without slashing margins. ➡️Update forecasts aggressively. Don’t rely on last quarter’s data—adjust plans every 30-60 days to stay ahead of shifts. ➡️Cut Waste, Not Growth. Instead of knee-jerk cost cutting, optimize freight, reduce carrying costs, and streamline production to stay profitable. Stay agile. Stay resilient. Stay liquid. [Image source: Logistics Managers’ Index (February 2025)]

Prepare for Disruptions Starting October 1st! As we approach the expiration of the International ILA contract on September 30, 2024, negotiations remain deadlocked between the ILA and the USMX, raising the likelihood of a major labor strike at ports across the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. This potential work stoppage could have serious ripple effects across supply chains — not just in ocean freight, but also in domestic trucking, air freight, warehousing, and intermodal operations. As seen in the past, a port shutdown can lead to: • Severe port congestion once operations resume, slowing imports and exports. • Increased demand for alternative transport modes like airfreight, driving up costs. • Trucking bottlenecks as freight movement inland is disrupted. • Possible delays in warehousing availability due to delayed inbound containers and bottlenecks at key distribution centers. With 25,000 workers at stake, the effects of a strike starting October 1st could be wide-reaching, impacting not only U.S. businesses but global trade. As logistics providers, we strongly advise all customers to: 1. Review your current shipment plans: Work with your forwarders to expedite shipments before the strike deadline. 2. Prepare alternative transport modes: Evaluate airfreight and trucking options now to avoid price spikes. 3. Consider warehousing solutions: Secure additional storage or overflow capacity to handle delays in inbound shipments. Staying proactive is key during these potential disruptions. #SupplyChain #Logistics #FreightForwarding #PortStrike #ILA #Shipping #Airfreight #Trucking #Warehousing #PortCongestion #FreightDelays