The Impact of Economic Changes on Job Availability

The January JOLTS report out today shows employers & workers alike are sitting tight in this job market: 1. The hires rate fell to 3.6%, continuing a string of weak gross hiring numbers, comparable to levels seen in 2017. Employers are holding back on hiring aggressively as they wait to see how the economy will evolve after a few years of more rapid hiring. Additionally, weak hiring may help explain why worker sentiment has been soft as job seekers find it difficult to find their next career move. 2. And that shows up in quits: The quits rate fell to 2.1% as workers sit tight. If workers lack confidence in the job market, they are unlikely to quit, instead prioritizing job security over career/income growth. 3. Despite a raft of layoff headlines in January, measured layoffs actually ticked down to 1,572,000. This is low by historical standards (layoffs averaged ~1.8m/month in the 2010s) and suggests employers are pulling back on hiring but still holding onto existing workers. 4. Openings fell slightly to 8,863,000 in January, continuing their unsteady downward trend. I would caution against just focusing on openings as a measure of job market health. While openings are still very high, other indicators from JOLTS like hires or quits tell a story of a job market that is flirting with weakness outright or at least pointing to softer wage growth ahead. Overall, this points to a job market where job seekers & employees feel like there aren't good opportunities on the open market and are sitting tight as a result. Thankfully, layoffs remain low, but unless employers feel the confidence to reaccelerate hiring, the pause we are in may make it harder for new/returning workers to get their foot in the door and existing workers to level up their careers. #economy #news #JOLTS

According to our Labor Market Tightness Index, the U.S. labor market has stopped softening in recent months. What lies ahead? Recent weeks have brought negative shocks to both labor supply and labor demand. Labor supply shock: Stricter immigration policies have reduced the availability of workers in industries like construction, healthcare, and hospitality. Labor demand shock: Layoffs of federal workers and contract eliminations are cutting jobs, with growing overall policy uncertainty further dampening hiring. Both factors point to weaker job growth, but their impact on labor market tightness is uncertain—it depends on which shock is larger. Here’s my take: In the next couple of months, the demand shock is likely to dominate, loosening the labor market. However, as the federal government’s restructuring stabilizes, this effect will fade. Beyond mid-2025, labor supply constraints from immigration policies will persist, likely for at least the next four years. This means that as the demand shock diminishes, the labor market will tighten again. #labormarkets #unemployment #government #immigration

The latest jobs report confirms what my experience in HR has been telling me for months: the job market has entered a turbulent phase. The numbers are clear: the U.S. added just 22,000 jobs in August, far below expectations, and layoffs surged 39% from July. As an HR professional, these aren’t just statistics—they’re a daily reality. This is why it’s now taking candidates two and a half months on average to find a new job, a duration not seen since 2017. This shift affects everyone. Here’s what it means for two key groups: For Companies and Leaders This isn't a time for panic, but for precision. Focus on retaining your top talent. A volatile market makes employee experience, internal mobility, and clear communication more critical than ever. When you do hire, be strategic, not reactive. The market demands you get it right the first time. For Job Seekers Don't be discouraged. Be strategic. While competition is high, opportunity still exists for those who adapt. Double down on networking, refine your personal brand, and be ready to articulate your value beyond a resume. Your network and your soft skills are your most powerful assets right now. This is a critical moment for us to learn, adapt, and lead through uncertainty. What are you seeing on the ground? Share your biggest challenge or observation below. #JobMarket #HR #CareerAdvice #Recruitment #Economy