Job Market Realities for Recent Graduates

🎯 Saying the Quiet Part Louder, Because I Still Don’t Think It’s Being Heard by Many Sometimes, when you're in a position where at least a few people care about what you have to say, you feel a responsibility to speak plainly. And today is one of those days for me. Over the past few weeks, I’ve been sharing updated Q2 data from our community, real findings from a network of tens of thousands trying to get hired in games. And one thing is clear: 🎓 Early career opportunities in games remain extremely limited, and stubbornly so. Now, I’m grateful for the thoughtful responses I’ve received. Many students and recent grads ask me, with reference to games roles only: “What location should I move to, Amir?” “Which functions are more in demand?” “Which companies are hiring early talent?” These are smart questions. They reflect the effort and strategy I hope everyone applies when job hunting. But here’s the thing I don’t think is landing: There is no trick, no perfect geo or niche, that will change the fact that the odds are very low for early career, not just in games, but everywhere. 📊 The U.S. unemployment rate for recent college graduates hit 5.8%, the highest level since 2021. 📊 Underemployment (graduates working jobs that don’t require a degree) affects over 40% of recent grads. 📊 Each month, I see more articles about hirers who aren't staffing early career at all anymore. This is awful, but it's reality. This isn’t just a blip. It’s a structural issue, and it’s especially acute in games, where entry-level roles have fallen far behind demand. 💬 So let me say this as clearly as I can: If you are early in your career, please don’t assume you’ll get a job in games. Assume the opposite. That doesn’t mean give up. That means diversify your approach. That means 80-90% of your effort should go to finding any job that isn’t underemployed, regardless of whether it’s in games. Talk to professionals. Mentors. Professors. Alumni. Ask: “What roles can I get with my degree and skills that would use them, even if they’re not in games?” "Do you think I need to retrain in my spot?" Build your skill set. Strengthen your base. You can keep trying for games too. This isn’t about crushing dreams. It’s about a real chance to survive. The calls to action, the stats, the stories, I share them all the time. But based on the DMs I still get from students and parents, I don’t think it’s been fully internalized yet. 👉 What I mean is people still seem to be putting a disproportionate amount of their energy into only games roles. I’m not saying this is easy. I’m not saying it’s fun. I’m not even saying that looking at other industries is easy either. What I am saying, with data, is that those who shift their focus, who put a highly disproportionate amount of effort into exploring non-games roles, are the most likely to land a stable, non-underemployed career. And that’s what I’m really focused on. With care. With respect. And always, with honesty.

The job market for new graduates is looking rough 🫤 . NACE projected 7.3% hiring growth for Class of 2025 back in fall. Their spring update? Just 0.6%. Meanwhile: 🚩 Recent grad unemployment hit 5.8% (up from 4.6% last year) 🔻 41% are underemployed (working jobs that don't require degrees) 📉 Job postings down 15% while applications up 30% One student told me: "I've applied to 200+ roles. Minimal interviews come out of it." Here's what's happening: Companies planned to hire more graduates, then pulled back. Federal hiring freezes, tariff uncertainty, and AI concerns are making employers cautious about entry-level positions. The sectors that typically absorb the most new grads - tech, media, professional services - have been slowing hiring for three years. Career services teams are scrambling to help students navigate this reality. The old playbook doesn't work when the fundamentals have shifted this dramatically. My take? Companies are in a holding pattern. It's a double whammy: free money dried up and AI has everyone scrambling to figure out what to do next. But despite companies flexing how they run on 100 "agents", AI still can't replace humans. So for the next 12 months, students need to: 💪 Prove they're more than a degree 🎯 Focus your applications on a few jobs (no spray and pray) 🤝 Network and have convos with people 🏋️ Do the extra thing to show you're worth a shot For career services teams? Ensure your support is accessible and consistent to keep students on track. They need you. Interest rates will likely drop over the next year. Companies will get clearer on what they need. And early-career hiring should rebound a little. But until then, it's up to universities to make sure they do everything to give their students an edge in their job search.

Every spring, graduation speeches promise a wide-open future. But this year, the vibe is ... off. The AI job reckoning is no longer theoretical - it’s statistical. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York didn’t mince words: “The employment situation for recent grads has deteriorated noticeably.” Unemployment for recent grads is 5.8%. Which doesn’t sound terrible until you realize the overall national rate is much lower, and that this bump isn’t happening in, say, underwater basket weaving. According to Oxford Economics, the spike is concentrated in technical fields like finance and computer science - the 'safe bets' ▪️ One startup now employs 1 data scientist doing what 75 used to. ▪️Some firms have cut off hiring below mid-level (L5) roles. ▪️Many are mandating an “AI-first” approach: don’t hire unless the AI can’t do it. We often treat AI safety as an abstract future problem: rogue agents, AGI alignment, existential risk. But as Mike Krieger from Anthropic pointed out, a society with 20% youth unemployment isn’t a safe society. Mass job loss IS an safety issue. It’s easy to miss this shift because it doesn’t look like mass layoffs. It looks like non-hiring. So if you’re graduating this year - I’m not going to lie. The rules have changed. But that also means the blueprint is gone. And in moments like this, self-authorship becomes a superpower. 3 paths worth considering - each rooted in agency, not permission: 1️⃣ Specialize in what AI still struggles with - ambiguity, persuasion, taste, human complexity. Jobs at the intersection of complexity and context are harder to automate. 2️⃣ Orchestrate AI workflows - become the person who directs agents, not the one replaced by them. If you can manage AI workflows, some companies will hire you straight into higher-level roles. 3️⃣ Leapfrog into solo projects or startups while the leverage window is open. Anthropic’s founders expect the first unicorn with a single human employee to emerge as soon as next year. The tools to build are abundant. The friction is low. The alpha is in motion. To quote the sages of Twitter, you can just DO things. So if you're graduating this year - Congrats! 🥳 You still have options. They just stopped handing out maps.

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, didn’t hedge. He didn’t “predict.” He warned.  𝘜𝘱 𝘵𝘰 50% 𝘰𝘧 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘺-𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘭 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘦-𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳 𝘫𝘰𝘣𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴. That’s not a headline—it’s a hiring filter. If your résumé doesn’t show AI fluency, you’re invisible. Not underqualified. Unqualified. 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘀 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱. Managers aren’t asking if you’re smart or ambitious. They’re asking one thing:  “Can this person create value with AI—starting on day one?” Entry-level jobs aren’t disappearing entirely. But the ones that remain are being redefined. They now demand 𝘭𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 “𝗔𝗜-𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆” 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗟𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 Forget listing tools. Show outcomes. Not this: > “𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗚𝗣𝗧 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.” But this: > “𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗱 6 𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀/𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗯𝘆 40%.” Not this: > “𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗲.” But this: > “𝗖𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔𝗜-𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 50 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀—𝗯𝗼𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝘆 15%.” 1 real, measurable project > 10 LinkedIn badges. 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 8-𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗙𝗶𝘅 No need to go back to school. But you do need to build something real. 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 1–2: Learn one tool deeply—Claude, Perplexity, or ChatGPT 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 3–4:Apply it to a real problem in your field 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 5-6: Document the outcome like a case study 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 7–8: Build your portfolio and start sharing your work Stop just consuming AI content. Start creating value. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 Many grads think: > “I need experience to get hired.” Hiring managers think: > “I need someone who can deliver, immediately.” AI is how you close that gap. You’re not just competing with other new grads. You’re competing with entry-level work that's being automated away. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵: This isn’t the job market you were promised. But it’s the one you're in. The people winning right now aren’t waiting for permission. They’re showing their work, solving problems, and proving their worth. If that’s not what your résumé does, let's rewrite it. 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗲 for real talk about careers, AI, and staying relevant in a changing world. 𝗗𝗠 𝗺𝗲 if you want help for the world we live in now, not the one you trained for.

College grads: No one’s coming to help. The era of hand-holding is over. If you’re a new college grad entering tech, you’re not just entering a competitive job market, you’re entering a fundamentally restructured one. AI isn’t some future disruptor. It’s already replacing the very roles most new grads aim for: → Recent grad unemployment is climbing. → Entry-level software, data, and finance roles are being phased out. → Companies are skipping junior hires entirely and opting for AI tools or L5+ engineers. So what does this mean for you? You have to take on a entrepreneurial mindset whether you start a business or not. That means: → Cold emailing businesses and startups you can support with smart ideas and clear value. → Selling your skills in ways that show direct impact. → Owning your narrative and not waiting to be discovered. Here are two tactical approaches I would start doing today if you haven’t landed an opportunity: 1. Find “boring” local businesses with large profits, but no tech. Dentists, HVAC installers, accounting firms are sitting on gold mines of inefficiency. → They don’t need flashy pitch decks. → They need AI-native operators who can fix workflows, automate entries, and build simple tools that save time and money. 2. Distribution is your cheat code. Most companies don’t understand modern distribution. But if you know how to: → Build an audience → Navigate TikTok, Reddit, Inc., Discord, Instagram, LinkedIn or X → Use AI to make content at scale You’ll have an advantage that senior folks can’t replicate or fake (and I’ve seen this A LOT in my field!). The path forward isn’t about waiting for permission. It’s about creating opportunity and using what you’ve got to win in a transformed economy. For those further out in their careers, what other advice would you offer new grads in this AI driven economy? Let’s help and share some wisdom with them in the comments! 👇🏾 ---— 👋🏾 Want more startup advice and tech news? Follow me here: Justin Gerrard And check out my podcast: Rush Hour Podcast ♻️ Repost if you think someone in your network would benefit! #collegegrads #jobs #careers #futureofwork